2023 NFL Power Rankings: Which remaining team has best Super Bowl shot?

This feels about right. There have been some twists and turns along the way, but it’s hard to argue that the four remaining NFL teams are the most deserving — and damn good stories on top of that.

The reigning champions and reigning MVP, the soon-to-be MVP, the team that has tried to climb this mountain for five long years and the team that has yearned for this moment for generations. It doesn’t get much better than that.

Here are our power rankings for what’s left of the playoff field, as well as some news and notes from the rest of the league.

NFL Power Rankings 

1. Baltimore Ravens (14-4) no change

Tied 10-10 and heading into the half, I’ll admit I was concerned the pressure of the moment might get to the Ravens. My bad. 

After a few minor tweaks, Baltimore rolled Houston in the second half. There’s so much to love about the AFC Championship Game, but in particular, I cannot wait to see the gameplan that Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald draws up in an attempt to limit Patrick Mahomes.

2. San Francisco 49ers (13-5) no change

Heart of a champion, right? It was an uninspiring Niners performance for about 40 minutes, but this team has too much talent and too much experience to go quietly. San Francisco will be hoping they see a more consistent Brock Purdy this weekend — hopefully in better weather. But honestly, I think the matchup to watch is how well Nick Bosa and the Niners’ pass rush fare against Detroit’s offensive line.

3. Kansas City Chiefs (13-6) +2

The funniest thing about the Chiefs reaching their sixth-straight AFC Championship Game is that they didn’t even avoid the wild mistakes that have plagued them all year. Ninety-nine times out of 100, if you fumble out of the opponent’s end zone on the road in a playoff game, I’m going to guess you lose. But not when you have Patrick Mahomes, and not when you have Steve Spagnuolo and his defense making life hell on Josh Allen. The Chiefs are, once again, inevitable.

4. Detroit Lions (14-5) no change

It feels harsh to have the Lions down at No. 4, but I think I can justify it by saying I’m extremely worried about the injuries Detroit sustained on the offensive line. It sounds like center Frank Ragnow will play through a sprained knee and a sprained ankle this weekend — which is nuts. And left guard Jonah Jackson is going to miss with a meniscus injury. It’s going to be all hands on deck against Nick Bosa, Javon Hargrave and Chase Young. But after what we’ve seen from this group all year, I’m certainly not going to write them off.

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5. Buffalo Bills (12-7) -2

I firmly believe the Buffalo Bills would have appeared in multiple Super Bowls in a world where Patrick Mahomes decides to play baseball, or even in a world in which Patrick Mahomes gets drafted by an NFC team. But football, much like life, is not fair. Kansas City’s dominion over Buffalo continues, and I’m not 100% sure what the Bills can do to change that.

6. Green Bay Packers (10-9) +1

Green Bay fans are feeling complicated emotions right now. It’s got to be encouraging to see this young team come together, and of course, it’s a thrill that the Packers have found another franchise quarterback. At the same time, we can’t sugarcoat it — this was a blown opportunity. 

The failed fourth down in the first half, the missed field goal in the fourth quarter, the decision by Jordan Love to throw that final pass. This was a game the Packers easily could’ve won. And if they had won? They’d be on to an indoor game against a division rival they beat on Thanksgiving. There remains plenty to be excited about, but these opportunities aren’t promised, and the Packers let this one slip.

7. Houston Texans (11-8) -1

There’s no such thing as a good loss, but it should be easier for a young team to stomach getting outclassed. Unlike the Packers, the Texans simply ran up against their betters, and they had the entire fourth quarter to process that fact. Still painful, but I think less so. Meanwhile, the future looks equally bright in Houston. They’ll need to figure out what to do with key free agents like Jonathan Greenard, Sheldon Rankins, Dalton Schultz and Devin Singletary. But when the foundation is C.J. Stroud playing on a rookie contract, it feels like the sky is the limit. 

8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-9) no change

I’ve been a big fan of the Bucs all season, and I think they played much better in Detroit than a lot of people expected. With a bit more balance on offense and a more consistent pass rush, this team could go to some fun places. The obvious problem is that everything is now in flux. What does the future hold for Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, Antoine Winfield Jr., Lavonte David and Devin White? Things could look very different in Tampa after a pivotal offseason.

9. Los Angeles Rams (10-8)

So much of the Rams’ success is attributed to Sean McVay, but it’s worth noting that both of his coordinators are part of the coaching carousel right now. Offensive coordinator Zac Robinson and defensive coordinator Raheem Morris both seem to be in demand for head-coaching jobs. McVay obviously holds a lot of sway over the offense, so that’s less concerning. But don’t discount the job Morris has done with the Rams’ young defense.

10. Miami Dolphins (11-7)

It feels mostly quiet in Miami, which is not a bad thing. The development that’s going to create all the drama is Tua Tagovailoa’s contract. He’s about to play on his fifth-year option. Is an extension coming, and what will it look like? That topic is sure to start arguments all offseason long.

11. Cleveland Browns (11-7)

Two interesting notes in Cleveland: It’s surprising that, in a season that saw the Browns start five different quarterbacks, offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt is reportedly on his way out. On top of that, former Notre Dame and Alabama offensive coordinator Tommy Rees might be on his way in as a tight ends coach. Interesting staff moves to monitor.

12. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-8)

Not that there was much doubt, but Mike Tomlin is back for 2024 — and expects an extension beyond that. I’m a lot less interested in that news and a lot more interested to hear that Kenny Pickett is going to have to win the starting quarterback job. Hopefully, the Steelers bring in some real-deal competition.

13. Dallas Cowboys (12-6)

We got about two days’ worth of drama out of the Mike McCarthy situation, but he is officially returning for the final year of his contract — and without getting a new one. That’s sure to create some offseason talking points, but what else is new with the Cowboys? With the coaching situation settled, the top priority has to be figuring out what to do about Dak Prescott and his massive contract. Do they extend him, or let their QB and their head coach play out a “prove it” year?

14. Philadelphia Eagles (11-7)

Much like Mike McCarthy, Nick Sirianni is also returning after some brief drama about his job security. I’m fine with it, but he can’t afford to get these coordinator hires wrong.

15. Seattle Seahawks (9-8) 

Pete Carroll is gone, and now offensive coordinator Shane Waldron is off to do the same job in Chicago. That’s not shocking, given that Waldron had no guarantee he’d be kept on in Seattle by the Seahawks’ new head coach — who has not been hired as of Jan. 23.

16. Indianapolis Colts (9-8)

I’m very impressed by the job Shane Steichen did with this team. To have them one game away from the playoffs, with a roster the average fan would hardly recognize, was truly inspiring stuff. As much as it might sting to miss out on the playoffs, they’ll have Anthony Richardson back for 2024, with a chance to beef up the talent around him.

17. Las Vegas Raiders (8-9)

History suggests that interim hires don’t often work out well, but I don’t care. It’s clear Antonio Pierce’s players respond to him, and he has a deep appreciation for what it means to be part of this franchise. Plus, the Raiders already tried the big swing with Josh McDaniels and it failed miserably. I’m way down to find out what Pierce can do as the full-time guy.

18. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8) 

Defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell was an easy scapegoat for the Jaguars’ collapse, given the way their defense fell off down the stretch. Now, it sounds like it’ll be former Falcons DC Ryan Nielsen replacing him. Sneaky good hire, judging from what Nielsen did this season in Atlanta.

19. New Orleans Saints (9-8)

New Orleans and Jacksonville are in opposite situations. The Saints’ offense drastically underperformed, and head coach Dennis Allen runs the defense. It’s a sensible decision to let go of offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael, who was a longtime part of the Sean Payton era. I’m interested to see how far outside the box the Saints are willing to look for his replacement.

20. Chicago Bears (7-10)

Everyone’s trying to connect the dots about what the hiring of Shane Waldron means for the Bears’ quarterback situation. Rather than try to get to the bottom of this in January, I’m merely going to point out that Waldron had a hand in re-vitalizing Geno Smith’s career in 2022. So whether he’s coaching Justin Fields or Caleb Williams in 2023, I trust him to get the most out of them. I like this hire.

21. Cincinnati Bengals (9-8)

The Bengals have finally suffered the first casualty of their resurgence with Joe Burrow. Yes, head coach Zac Taylor still calls the plays in Cincinnati. But Brian Callahan has been there to help design the offense and the gameplan for Burrow’s entire career. Now, he’s off to run the show in Nashville. It is always worth noting when a successful team loses a longtime piece of the operation.

22. Denver Broncos (8-9)

In Year 1 of the Sean Payton Era, we learned that not even he could make the Russell Wilson situation work. In Year 2, the Broncos are going to be paying Wilson a lot of money to (presumably) not play football for them, while still trying to be competitive in their own right. Consider me curious to see how Payton pulls off this juggling act.

23. Arizona Cardinals (4-13)

Has any team more drastically changed your opinion from August to January than the Cardinals? Their roster and first-year head coach were largely seen as jokes before the season. Despite that, they were competitive during a 1-8 start, and they went 3-5 once Kyler Murray returned from injury. With two first-round picks in the upcoming draft — one of them fourth overall — Arizona has a legitimate chance to make some noise in 2024.

24. Minnesota Vikings (7-10)

The Vikings deserve a lot of credit for simply not collapsing this season. Kirk Cousins went down before Halloween, and Minnesota still managed to keep its playoff hopes alive until Week 18. Unlike the Bengals, there’s not as much to build on. Cousins is both injured and headed for free agency, and now we wait to see just how drastically things are going to change in Minneapolis.

25. Atlanta Falcons (7-10)

It felt like a done deal that Bill Belichick was going to be announced as the Falcons’ new head coach. He still could be. But with each passing day, the Falcons express interest in more candidates and no forward momentum seems to be happening on the Belichick front. I’m not saying that’s good or bad, I’m just admitting I’m surprised it’s drawn out this long.

26. New York Giants (6-11)

I think the Giants found a lot of useful pieces this season, but I’m not going to feel differently about their big-picture prospects until I see the vision at quarterback.

27. New York Jets (7-10)

Call it a mulligan. I thought the Jets handled everything that happened after Aaron Rodgers’ injury about as poorly as possible. But the bottom line is that they only got four snaps out of their QB1. It looks like they’re running it back with everyone, including Rodgers, for 2024. And if you thought the pressure was intense heading into this season, you haven’t seen anything yet. 

28. Tennessee Titans (6-11)

This head coaching hire tells you a lot about where the NFL is in 2024. Mike Vrabel won a lot of games and had a lot of success playing smash mouth, ball control offense and nasty defense. He’s out, and he’s being replaced by a first-time head coach in Brian Callahan who has spent the last four years in one of the most pass-happy offenses in the league. 

This game is about scoring points, and the Titans are undoubtedly hoping Callahan can impart some of what he learned from Joe Burrow and the Bengals on Will Levis. 

29. Los Angeles Chargers (5-12)

Similar to the Falcons, I thought the Chargers would have wrapped their coaching hire up by now. Obviously, a lot of the big-name coaching candidates are still on playoff teams. But just as the Falcons telegraphed their interest in Belichick, the Chargers sure seemed to have an eye on Jim Harbaugh. Instead, we wait. 

30. Washington Commanders (4-13)

If you want evidence of how things are changing in Washington, look no further than the hiring of Adam Peters to be their general manager. The guy was highly regarded in San Francisco, which is one of the most stable and successful organizations in the NFL. No way he leaves for Washington without some confidence that this organization has turned over a new leaf. That’s an exciting thought for Commanders fans.

31. New England Patriots (4-13)

I should’ve guessed that the Patriots had a plan in place for Bill Belichick’s eventual departure. It was a bit anti-climactic compared to a major coaching search, but I love everything I’ve seen from Jerod Mayo so far and am excited to see where he goes with it.

32. Carolina Panthers (2-15)

The long road back to relevance begins with the hiring of a new GM, and I can appreciate that it’s a guy who knows the organization well. Dan Morgan played seven seasons in Carolina, and he’s been back in their front office for three years after spending a decade between Seattle and Buffalo. At the very least, he has a good grasp on what the job is going to require. 

David Helman covers the Dallas Cowboys for FOX Sports and hosts the NFL on FOX podcast. He previously spent nine seasons covering the Cowboys for the team’s official website. In 2018, he won a regional Emmy for his role in producing “Dak Prescott: A Family Reunion” about the quarterback’s time at Mississippi State. Follow him on Twitter at @davidhelman_.

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