What could happen in the Russia-Ukraine war in 2024?


A Ukrainian soldier is seen inside an artillery vehicle in his fighting position as Russia-Ukraine war continues in the direction of Kharkiv, Ukraine on November 20, 2023.

Diego Herrera Carcedo | Anadolu | Getty Images

At the start of 2023, hopes were high that a much-vaunted Ukrainian counteroffensive — expected to be launched in the spring — would change the dial in the war against Russia.

It didn’t, and the prospect of a breakthrough in 2024 is also unlikely, military experts and defense analysts told CNBC.

They predict intense fighting is likely to continue into the next year but say Kyiv’s forces are unlikely to launch any more counteroffensives. Russia, meanwhile, is likely to focus on consolidating the territory it has already seized, particularly in eastern Ukraine.

Away from the battlefield, military experts said that the trajectory the Russia-Ukraine war takes in 2024 will mostly be dictated thousands of miles away in the U.S., Ukraine’s largest military supporter, and whether aid declines in the run-up — and following — the U.S. presidential election.

“War is an uncertain endeavor,” retired Army Lt. Gen. Stephen Twitty, former deputy commander of the U.S. European Command, told CNBC.

“Russia can win the war, or the Ukrainians can win the war. And, as you’re seeing things now, if you really think about it, what has been achieved this year? Very little has been achieved by Russia, and you can say the same thing for the Ukrainians,” he said.

Ukrainian servicemen take part in a military training exercise not far from front line in the Donetsk region on June 8, 2023.

Anatolii Stepanov | Afp | Getty Images

“We’re in this situation now where if there’s not a clear winner, there’s going to be a stalemate, and there’s going to be, perhaps, a future frozen conflict. What can tilt the balance, in my view, is if the Ukrainians are not resupplied and they’re not re-funded and they don’t get the equipment and people that they need. Then this war could tilt to the Russians,” Twitty noted.

Expectations not met

Panorama of the city from a bird’s-eye view, shot on a drone, covered with snow on December 7, 2023 in Avdiivka, Ukraine.

Libkos | Getty Images

Weather conditions are deteriorating in Ukraine, with mud, freezing rain, snow and ice making offensive and reconnaissance operations challenging. Intense fighting continues nonetheless, and particularly around Bakhmut and Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine where Russian forces are conducting offensive operations and have made some recent, confirmed advances.

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War noted last week that Russian forces have likely committed to offensive operations in multiple sectors of the front, during a period of the most challenging weather of the fall-winter season, “in an effort to seize and retain the initiative” before the Russian presidential elections in March 2024.

In the meantime, the ISW noted in an analysis, “Ukrainian forces establish and consolidate defensive positions to conserve manpower and resources for future offensive efforts.”

Ukrainian forces have adopted a more defensive stance as circumstances dictate; a senior army general warned last week that front-line Ukrainian troops face artillery shortages and have scaled back some military operations because of a shortfall of foreign assistance.

Aid and politics

Another year of war in Europe has undoubtedly drained Western military resources and the political appetite to maintain massive amounts of military aid for Ukraine.

Ongoing funding for Ukraine is far from secure in 2024 given the fact that the U.S. presidential election could herald a seismic change in the attitude toward and support for Kyiv.

Specifically, all eyes are on former U.S. President Donald Trump, the Republican front-runner, who cultivated close relations with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin during his presidency.

There are concerns that, given Trump’s previous good relations with Moscow and “America First” policy, aid for Ukraine could be shelved rapidly. Defense analysts agree that much of the outlook for Ukraine is dependent on the outcome of the U.S. vote.

“I think it’s important to understand the extent to which Ukraine is reliant on the U.S. right now, because it’s quite significantly more reliant on the U.S. than it is on the EU,” Sam Cranny-Evans, defense analyst at the Royal United Services Institute defense think tank, told CNBC.

“If the U.S. election goes in a way that is not in Ukraine’s favor, coupled with the fact that the EU is not really stepping up to the plate — it’s ammunition production is so far off what it should have been by now to give Ukraine a hope of surviving and a hope of victory — it’s not a very cheery prediction for 2024.”

Good chemistry: President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin shake hands during a joint press conference after their summit on July 16, 2018 in Helsinki, Finland.

Chris McGrath | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Rumblings of discontent over continuing Ukraine aid have been heard in some Republican quarters for months now, as well as in Eastern Europe.

Former U.S. Ambassador to NATO Kurt Volker told CNBC he believes American and EU aid packages for Ukraine will be approved come January, saying he believed this funding would tide Ukraine over for another year, militarily. Volker said that aid packages must include more advanced weaponry for Ukraine, however, like F-16 fighter jets which have been pledged by Norway, Denmark and the Netherlands.

Ukrainian pilots are beginning their training on the jets now but it could be a number of months before they’re deployed in Ukraine. The U.S. is not providing F-16s to Ukraine but has authorized allies to provide their own jets.

“A couple of things ought to change,” Volker told CNBC. “We ought to lift restrictions on the weapons we’re providing. We still don’t provide the longest-range missiles and we still have not delivered any Western aircraft in Ukraine yet. Those things have to happen. And I think we have to try to give the Ukrainians more of a technological advantage,” he noted.

The United States has said that it will begin flight training for Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets.

Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

Volker believes that a Trump presidency might not be the catastrophe for Ukraine that is feared, but said it would make future funding uncertain.

“I doubt that even if Trump were elected that he would abandon support for Ukraine overall, because it would be a disaster for U.S. interests, and it would appear to be a failure. You’d have these images of Russians overrunning places, and brutality and so forth, so I don’t think he wants that. But it’s not clear exactly what he would do to try to end the war.”

For his part, Trump has said that he’d be able to resolve the Ukraine war “in one day” if he was reelected, saying he’d convince the leaders of Ukraine and Russia to make a deal.

More stalemate or negotiations?

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